REIV clearance rate for this week was 66%. This is similar to 2008 during the height of the GFC, and to last year where the July clearances were in the 80”s. However, we look at the volumes that are selling and the picture is different. The volume of sales this year has far outstripped 2008 and 2009. As did the total dollars. This time last year REIV stated $468M of property sold as compared to this weekend of nearly $517M.
It was noted that many opens were quiet and the auctions our team attended were mixed. Some flew while others left auctioneers wondering where the punters had gone.
Over the next 2 months we should see a natural quietening of the market. During winter, anecdotally, lower priced properties keep selling to investors and owners of the top end family homes normally spend this time getting their homes ready for the Spring market.
This is assuming the Reserve bank do not decide to move the cash rate from 4.5% tomorrow. Economists and other financial commentators have joined the punters shortening odds for a rise tomorrow. Centrebet has the odds of RBA for keeping cash rate the same as $1.14.
RPData have released some statistics today that have been picked up by the major papers. Clearance rates in the 50% – 60% range! Don’t confuse the REIV data with this. The clearance rate has not dropped 35% over the last few weeks. Both RPData and REIV are industry based and are feed in different ways. Both however cannot possibly pick up all the sales. The Valuer general of Victoria has just released very accurate figures for the calendar year of 2009. We are analysing these at the moment and will bring you some results over the coming weeks.
Statistics can be useful, but they are not the be all and end all of whether to buy or not. A professional advocate will be able to assist you in a decision as to the potential value of a property and its surroundings. Just because Seddon or Seaford have had good capital growth in the past, it does not mean every property for sale in these areas is a great buy.
If you are thinking of buying property give us a call for a no obligation first meeting.
Ian James
